I have a theory.
“No one knows anything.”
I have a sign on my wall right in front of my computer screen. It is a constant reminder not to take experts seriously or put too much emphasis on the advice of others.
I thought this was especially true today when I was reading a piece written by Anthony Pompliano.
Let me start by saying that I like Pomp. I respect him a lot. He was kind enough to be a guest on my podcast two years ago, and he’s someone who’s viewpoint I appreciate, regardless of whether I agree with him or not.
He’s a man who has showed up consistently over the course of years and has built his mini media empire. He took no short cuts, put his own money on the line, and is now in a position to say what he thinks.
With that said, I often cringe at his hot takes, because the finance gurus like him are the same people who were saying that inflation was going to destroy our country, or that there was going to be a recession, or that the US dollar was going to become overtaken by the Chinese Yuan.
Now these same experts are the ones peddling a new prediction of the future, which has the same likelihood of being wrong as the previous predictions they were wrong about.
I don’t like it because in almost every case, the predictions are based off of fear or greed. It’s easy to get clicks and newsletter signups when you’re claiming that the United States Secretary of the Treasury is out of touch, or that the US dollar is on the verge of collapse.
It’s lame, boring, and cheap.
I don’t understand how people still fall for this.
No one knows what the economy will do. No one knows what the stock market will do.
No one knows the future.
So why are people so inclined to hang on the words of gurus, as if they can see the world through some magical viewpoint that only super geniuses can see. It’s as if everyone else “just doesn’t get it.”
A great example of this is housing. During Covid, there was panic about the real estate market. The US real estate market is essentially the largest financial market in the world. If the US real estate market collapses, it could completely cripple the world economy.
Experts were POSITIVE that the market would collapse.
What happened?
The market grew. Even during Covid. Even when the data and the numbers predicted a collapse with high certainty.
No one could have predicted that millennials would have flocked to second tier cities to get out of the city and enjoy more space and land while embracing work from home.
No one could have predicted that the boomers would have held onto their houses, as “downsizing” would have been more expensive than staying put. The fact that boomers aren’t moving is the biggest factor in the constrained inventory, because this is something like 30 million homes (that number is a complete guess btw) that aren’t on the market.
No one could have predicted any of the strange and fortuitous events that took place that made housing prices skyrocket in the face of 6% interest rates.
The experts have absolutely no clue what they’re talking about.
I encourage you to think twice before you accept any prediction as fact. No one, and I mean NO ONE, knows what their doing. Everything is a semi educated guess. The people you see that have success in their lives, do so because they consistently made choices that would have high probability of success.
It has absolutely nothing to do with predicting the future.